Two Weeks To Go: Election Hodge Podge

Lots of different things to talk about, so I decided to just post this hodge podge look at everything I'm thinking about. 

• Let's begin with the 5th District race between Victoria Spartz and Christina Hale. The campaign has taken a particularly negative turn. The PACs and the Spartz campaign have been the main culprits launching pretty much spaghetti against the wall attacks at Hale hoping something sticks. As Mary Beth Schneider reported on Twitter a few days ago, any negative policies the GOP says Hale voted for that became law had to also have been supported by a ton of Republicans too in the General Assembly. Indiana has had a GOP supermajority in both houses now for several sessions. Hale's ads continue to hammer home the health care debate over preexisting conditions. To my count, her campaign has explicitly only lobbed two negative ads at Spartz. One that was on health care where the State Senator is on tape saying health care is "not federal issue" and another with a couple giving a testimonial on how the Affordable Care Act helped their child. The PACs and the DCCC have hammered Spartz hard with some cringeworthy but probably effective ads. I would love to see some recent polling on this one. Given the amount of money coming in, I'd say it's probably close still. Hale and Spartz each released ads in the past showing each with a lead. Independent polls have slightly favored Hale.
• The 5th District race has kind of taken the air out of the other Congressional races in Indiana, but Jeannine Lee Lake's race in the 6th against Mike Pence's brother, Greg, has gotten attention for the wrong reasons. Lake has told WTHR that she has been receiving threats and that her campaign RV was vandalized. Lake also went on Facebook Live following an incident where someone allegedly fired a weapon in her vicinity. It's sad where politics have led us in 2020. My best to Lake as she continues her courageous attempt to unseat Greg Pence. Let's hope that law enforcement helps keep the candidate safe as she continues campaigning.
• The race for Governor should be ramping up, but, as Adam Wren reported in Politico, the campaign has become a referendum on Eric Holcomb's mask mandate. Libertarian Donald Rainwater has found broad support and has more cash on hand than Democrat Woody Myers by his staunch opposition to Holcomb's pandemic response. Myers is trying to open up the conversation on doing more in Indiana to control the surging COVID-19 case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths. It's really a shame Myers has not been able to break through. In the Politico piece by Wren, former Indiana House Speaker and 2012 and 2016 Democratic nominee for Governor, John Gregg goes off calling Myers the "most disappointing candidate the Democrats have put forward" for Governor in his lifetime. I like John, but I don't think he needs to be criticizing too heavily on that regard. Yes, Myers has struggled to raise money and campaign in what should be a downwind season for Dems, but Gregg didn't run a perfect campaign in either of his runs, either. Holcomb remains the heavy favorite. Will he get 50 percent, though? I think you'll see him around 55 percent on Election Night. Then, without the need for reelection as Indiana Governors are term limited maybe he'll return to the pre-election season Holcomb who might move Indiana back on the "Back on Track" plan out of Stage 5. Since moving to Stage 5, Indiana has seen cases of coronavirus explode.
• Which leads me to the next point: The Indiana Democratic Party. Boy, have we reached the same crossroads again here. The Indiana Dems have proven that they cannot run a multiple fronts campaign again forcing all their resources in one or two directions. This time, the Dems seem to be placing their advocacy behind a few state races, Hale's race (though much more federal and PAC dollars seem at play here) and the race for Indiana Attorney General between Jonathan Weinzapfel and Todd Rokita. All the while, John Zody continues to hold on to his Chairmanship. It's understandable that Dems would have an uphill battle in Indiana, but it shouldn't be, in my estimation, nearly as bad as it is right now. 
• The fact that Republicans are running ads in the Indianapolis market for several General Assembly races really underscores how concerned that they are about them. While they are in no danger of losing their majority, Dems could pick up enough seats to end the supermajority in the House at least. There are also some great opportunities in the Senate where progressive voices could gobble up Republican seats. It bears watching.

That's it for now. As I write this, I'm watching Colts football. Back to the game.

Obama Says "Hale Yes!"

Barack Obama
Official Photo

President Barack Obama has weighed in on the 5th Congressional District race in Indiana, and he's saying, "Hale Yes!"

While it's no surprise that POTUS 44 is endorsing Christina Hale, it's quite the commentary on the quality of Hale as a candidate and where we are in Election 2020.

The 5th District rates as a Republican +9 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. The district extends from the Northside of Indianapolis to the northern boundary of Grant County. While it includes many rural areas, it also includes Anderson, Carmel, Fishers, the western suburbs of Kokomo, Marion, Noblesville and Zionsville among other hamlets such as Hartford City, Tipton and Gas City. 

When initially drawn after the 2010 census, the 5th CD was represented by Dan Burton, the man who once set up a cantaloupe experiment to prove somehow Clinton aide Vince Foster could not have committed suicide. Susan Brooks, who has represented District 5 since 2013, has built a rock-ribbed conservative voting record, but she's avoided some of the hyper-partisan rhetoric other Indiana Republican pols have used in that time. That's why it was a surprise when she decided to take a pass on running for another two-year term. 

Christina Hale
Campaign Photo

The 5th District is changing, and it's been easy to see over the past few elections. Once one of the most red areas in the US, the district battleground is now suburban Hamilton County where traditionally Republican voters have proven open to listening to strong Democrats. 

Both President Obama and Senator Joe Donnelly did very well in Hamilton County. It paved their way to wins in 2008 for Obama and 2012 for Donnelly. For a Democrat running in Indiana, it's crucial to run up the score in Lake, Marion and Monroe Counties and split or win those suburbs of the 5th Congressional District.

Hale, an accomplished former State Representative, is hoping to capitalize on the swing vote nature of those suburban voters. Certainly, her Republican opponent, Victoria Spartz is taking the opposite tack. She's aligned herself as the best friend of Donald Trump and is trying to, no doubt, draw out the strong Republican allies of POTUS 45 in the district. 

With Obama in this race, you can bet you're going to see highest profile D's and R's taking an interest in the Indiana 5th District campaign. That means you're likely going to see the Republican and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committees and all the super PACs weighing in on this one, too.

Yep, if you didn't think it was before, the 5th Congressional District Indiana race is going to be one to watch through November!

Spartz Caught in Lie While Pulling Age-Old Tactic of Failing Campaign

Victoria Spartz
Official Indiana Senate Photo

In politics, it's usually conventional wisdom that the candidate who is behind challenges the incumbent/leading candidate to a debate. If you're the incumbent or the candidate in front, a debate, conventional wisdom says, only gives the challenger a venue to hack into your lead and record.

That's where we are in the 5th District Congressional race today as Indiana state Senator Victoria Spartz challenged former Indiana state Rep. Christina Hale to three debates in a tweet.

The action took many by surprise, including me. The 5th District is an open seat in November because Susan Brooks is retiring from Congress. The Republican legislator was first elected to the seat in 2012. Her decision to not pursue election was a bit of a surprise. The district rates a +9 Republican district according to Cook Partisan Voting Index.

Makes you wonder if Spartz has some sort of damaging internal polling in her hands showing her behind Hale. While Indiana's 5th District Congressional race has recently been rated as a toss-up by many of the prognosticators who look at polling data, it's clear Spartz, the Republican nominee, believes she's behind Hale, the
Democratic nominee.

Christina Hale
Campaign Photo

That's not all. Spartz flat out lied about Hale's record while laying down the challenge. In her tweet thread, she accused Hale of being a liberal and accused her of opposing the reforms of Governors Daniels, Pence and Holcomb, but Spartz's timeline doesn't match up. Hale didn't serve with anyone other than Pence.

Hale defeated a five-term Republican incumbent named Cindy Noe by 51 votes in a then-Republican 87th District to become a member of the Indiana General Assembly. She was sworn in in January of 2013. She then was reelected to the seat in 2014 with another narrow victory over a well-funded GOP opponent. She was on her way to a third reelection in 2016 when she was asked to join John Gregg as his Lieutenant Governor candidate. She left the legislature to pursue that office.

Given the razor-thin margin of the 87th District when Hale represented it, it's laughable that Spartz, who in May just ran her first real race versus voters for elected office, would say today on Twitter that Hale has "reliably liberal" policies.

So, to review, Spartz, who was spotted just a few days ago campaigning without wearing a facemask, lied about Hale's record in the process of pulling a classic move of a failing campaign in challenging an opponent to a debate.

It's not been a good couple of weeks for Senator Spartz.

Spartz Campaign Releases Photo with Unmasked Candidate on Trail

Victoria Spartz
Official Indiana Senate Photo

Indiana State Senator Victoria Spartz is in a neck-and-neck battle with, in the interest of full disclosure, my friend, former State Rep. Christina Hale in Indiana's 5th Congressional District.

Because the race is so tight, it's no wonder that the candidates are out and about knocking doors and talking to voters even in the middle of this pandemic. In that vein, Spartz released a photo on Twitter of a particular moment from her campaigning on Saturday.

The photo, which I'll link here, shows Spartz with one of her daughters campaigning on the doorstep of a voter. The Republican and her daughter both have masks, but they are not wearing them. The voter is also unmasked. None of them are demonstrating social distancing.

First off, let's be fair. I don't know the voter. It's possible Spartz may have known the voter and the woman may have been screened somehow before the photo. I also don't know where the photo was taken. It could have been in Hamilton County or maybe even somewhere else in the expansive district, but, if the candidate was in Marion County, she was in violation of the mask mandate put into effect July 9 by Mayor Joe Hogsett.

Plus, it's just not safe to be going around these days knocking doors without a mask. After all, you're coming into contact with a wide variety of people on your journey knocking doors. If you're going to stop and get up close with people, the least you can do, under CDC recommendations, is to mask up when social distancing isn't possible.

City-County Councillor Ali Brown, who represents part of the 5th District, stated in a tweet that Spartz's behavior was unwelcome in her part of Marion County. "Please don't knock in my district if you aren't going to do the most basic thing to protect constituents. I care about the people who live here," Brown tweeted.

COVID-19 is no joke, and it's something candidates and campaigns are going to have to deal with in every action they take not only to keep themselves and their families safe but to keep the people they come into contact with safe. In the same way that candidates take great care to make sure their image is cultivated in the most positive light, candidates are going to have to demonstrate that they are willing to take steps like masking up.

Of course, there's also the possibility that Spartz may not care about masking up and being safe while door knocking. I think it's fair for reporters to ask her that question now given the photo her official campaign Twitter account sent out.