Keep Working Until Biden Wins

So, here we are just a few weeks before the election, and it appears that Joe Biden is doing about as well as can be expected in the polls. I don't think this thing is over yet.

While my prediction based upon the statewide polls puts Joe Biden at a 375 electoral vote mark when everything is said and done, the polls are still too tight to just coast across the finish line...even with Donald Trump continuing to implode.

The biggest thing you can do right now is keep advocating to those persuadable voters you know. Maybe those old-time Republicans that you've met over the years might just be fed up enough with the state of their party to flip over and vote for Biden this year. If that can happen, perhaps we can even turn Indiana blue.

Personally, the only person who could turn Indiana blue is Barack Obama, and he did it with hard work. His 50-state strategy with boots on the ground everywhere in the United States paid off. In the age of COVID-19, Biden can't do that. I think he's running a much better campaign than I expected him to run. He may even have some coattails as the Senate looks more and more likely to flip to Democrat.

Still, nothing will surprise me in 2020 short of aliens coming to Earth. Of course, we'd have to hear endless news conferences of Donald Trump telling everyone to go out and look directly up at the alien craft while Dr. Fauci, the CDC and the Space Force all advise against it. Imagine all of the gun owners firing their weapons up at the ship. Well, yeah, that's hopefully not going to happen.

This has been the longest, strangest year I can remember, so I wouldn't expect the last three months to finish in any other way but nasty. 

Biden winning this election would be a start, but we'll still have a long way to go. Keep working.

Harris Should Reignite Voters in Battleground States

Kamala Harris
Official Photo

I've been busy these last two weeks with the day job, so I haven't had much time or blogging. I did want to react to Joe Biden's pick of U.S. Senator Kamala Harris to be his running mate.

While I wanted Susan Rice, I have zero issues with Harris joining the ticket. I believe she brings a lot of punch to a campaign whose fortunes continue to be good for November.

That said, Harris, who hails from solid blue California, can help Biden with voter enthusiasm around the margins in the key battleground states where things will be close. 

It's those places where people sat at home in 2016 and didn't get out to vote...states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those were all states Al Gore, John Kerry and Barack Obama carried. Donald Trump carried them in 2016. Harris reignites those voters.

We all know that this is not a popularity contest. It's a strategic one. On my scorecard, I already have Biden with enough electoral votes to win this thing, but that is far from official. It's going to take a strong convention and a continued strong performance by both candidates to get past a well-funded incumbent who has strong support within his own circle.

Independents and "Never Trumpers" who may have held their nose and voted for Trump in 2016 are

Joe Biden
Official Photo

going to have to come over and vote for Biden and Harris.

I think Joe Biden found himself the candidate who can best help him do it..even more than my choice in Susan Rice. 

Biden's going to have to do better though. He can't get content to hang in Wilmington. He also is going to have to tighten up his performance on the stump and in interviews. He still gaffes way too often. Harris, who is very media-friendly, can help him by taking this role in the campaign. Biden, however, has to do it too.

As we get closer to November 3, more and more Americans get switched on. With a number of controversies to hit Trump on, Biden has to be judicious and hit the ones that can hurt Trump the most. He and Harris have to have laser focus in keeping the campaign simple. 

For me, I'd hit Trump every darn day on his undercutting of the United States Post Office and his pandemic response. Those two issues are things we all can feel. They're also among the umpteen failures of this administration.

So, with Harris aboard the USS Biden, we head into the convention season. This thing isn't over no matter what the polls say. It's just beginning.

Obama Says "Hale Yes!"

Barack Obama
Official Photo

President Barack Obama has weighed in on the 5th Congressional District race in Indiana, and he's saying, "Hale Yes!"

While it's no surprise that POTUS 44 is endorsing Christina Hale, it's quite the commentary on the quality of Hale as a candidate and where we are in Election 2020.

The 5th District rates as a Republican +9 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. The district extends from the Northside of Indianapolis to the northern boundary of Grant County. While it includes many rural areas, it also includes Anderson, Carmel, Fishers, the western suburbs of Kokomo, Marion, Noblesville and Zionsville among other hamlets such as Hartford City, Tipton and Gas City. 

When initially drawn after the 2010 census, the 5th CD was represented by Dan Burton, the man who once set up a cantaloupe experiment to prove somehow Clinton aide Vince Foster could not have committed suicide. Susan Brooks, who has represented District 5 since 2013, has built a rock-ribbed conservative voting record, but she's avoided some of the hyper-partisan rhetoric other Indiana Republican pols have used in that time. That's why it was a surprise when she decided to take a pass on running for another two-year term. 

Christina Hale
Campaign Photo

The 5th District is changing, and it's been easy to see over the past few elections. Once one of the most red areas in the US, the district battleground is now suburban Hamilton County where traditionally Republican voters have proven open to listening to strong Democrats. 

Both President Obama and Senator Joe Donnelly did very well in Hamilton County. It paved their way to wins in 2008 for Obama and 2012 for Donnelly. For a Democrat running in Indiana, it's crucial to run up the score in Lake, Marion and Monroe Counties and split or win those suburbs of the 5th Congressional District.

Hale, an accomplished former State Representative, is hoping to capitalize on the swing vote nature of those suburban voters. Certainly, her Republican opponent, Victoria Spartz is taking the opposite tack. She's aligned herself as the best friend of Donald Trump and is trying to, no doubt, draw out the strong Republican allies of POTUS 45 in the district. 

With Obama in this race, you can bet you're going to see highest profile D's and R's taking an interest in the Indiana 5th District campaign. That means you're likely going to see the Republican and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committees and all the super PACs weighing in on this one, too.

Yep, if you didn't think it was before, the 5th Congressional District Indiana race is going to be one to watch through November!

Biden Camp Releases Great Sit Down Conversation with Obama

Take 15 minutes and watch this important video. This conversation between former President Barack Obama and his Vice President and current Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

It's excellent.

Biden Camp Running Strong, but It's July

Joe Biden

The legendary basketball coach at Ben Davis High School, Steve Witty, always used to say, "The toughest thing to do in sports is exactly what's expected of you."

He didn't know that I'd use that quote here and in this context, but I think that quote could also apply to politics. The toughest thing is sometimes doing what is expected, and Joe Biden is running a much-better-than-expected campaign for President of the United States by simply keeping that metaphorical golf ball right in the fairway. It appears that he's taking some advice to heart.

It all starts with the ads the Biden campaign is releasing, and each ad released has been on message, on point, uplifting and positive. 

A great example is this spectacular ad. Each one plays into Biden's strong suit: his empathy. 

But beyond his ad campaign, Biden is also nailing the other aspects of a modern campaign. In the past week, we've seen where he's talking with Bernie Sanders about platform and Elizabeth Warren  about the economy and is listening to them. He's held events with Pete Buttigieg. He's keeping his chief rivals for the nomination more than just involved as supporters. 

Barack Obama allegedly advised Biden to keep his speeches and interviews short and keep his tweets in a similar vein. That's discipline, and that's what we've seen from the former Senator from Delaware and Vice President. Biden, unlike President Donald Trump, demonstrates this in his public speeches by sticking to the script and staying on message. For someone who at times has been known for his gaffes, this is very important.

All the while, Biden is letting the Super PACs do the dirty work on Trump. The Lincoln Project and Vote Vets both have hit Trump hard. The Lincoln Project's Whispers ad that dropped last week is one of the most powerful ads I've seen, and it's targeted right at what Donald Trump values...loyalty.

Of course, the best thing for Biden to do right now is stay visible, which he is. Follow the recommendations of the CDC on rallies, which his is, and continue to let Donald Trump be Donald Trump. The amount of lies, distortions and offensive things that come out of Trump's mouth and social media accounts are unprecedented not to mention his corrupt actions.

With this much of a wind behind him, Biden is now expanding the electoral map in response to recent polls showing him very competitive in Texas where a Democrat has not won since 1976. Today, Biden launched an ad in the Lone Star State which never once mentions Donald Trump and focuses on recommendations to stop the spread of COVID-19. This means Trump will now have to play defense in Texas, a state he carried by nine percentage points in 2016. Polls also show Biden with leads in Arizona and Florida.

All of this positive news comes with a healthy dose of caution. We are still some four months from the General Election. In the day and age we live in, anything can happen. It's time to keep working.

In Memoriam: Richard G. Lugar (1932-2019)

For the second time this year, Indiana mourns the loss of a transformational political figure.

Richard Lugar has died, and I doubt we will never see another man like him in Indiana politics.

For me, it seems like he's always been here. I remember watching his career since I was a child. He was the Mayor of Indianapolis when I was born, and he served on the Senate for most of my adult life.

His accomplishments as Mayor paved the way for the city we know today. He had the vision of Indianapolis as a major player in the Midwest, and he put the chess pieces in place for that to happen. When he became a U.S. Senator, he brought his Hoosier sensibilities to the Upper Chamber of the U.S. Congress, and he served with a record of national and global distinction.

While a reliable vote for the GOP, Lugar was not afraid to put his state and country ahead of his party, and he did that without apology on occasion.

Unlike many before him and after him, Senator Lugar did not gain his power by corruption or through scandal. When you look back at his record, the only whiff of a scandal was that he chose to maintain an address in Indianapolis while living near Washington, D.C. rather than reside in Indianapolis or somewhere in Indiana full time. The Constitution says that one only needs to be an inhabitant of the state they serve, and it was ruled that, while he would spend time in hotels when he was back in the state, maintaining the address was enough to satisfy the Constitution. I always thought it was a silly scandal because Lugar served his constituents so well.

In fact, it was because Senator Lugar did the work that he earned his power. His constituent services were second-to-none. The many times I wrote him on issues, I always received back a personalized letter that sounded as if the Senator executed it on his own computer. He would provide concrete reasons for his positions and would promise to take my views into advisement. They weren't partisan missives written in generality.

He conducted himself in the same way in the international sphere. Few Senators were as respected at home or abroad as Lugar. He was above party and always pro-country. From IPS School Board Member to even his work post-Senate, Senator Lugar was trying to help the city, the state, and the world be a better place.

When I got into politics and then began to write this blog, he became someone I wanted to meet. It always seemed that I was a step or two behind when trying to accomplish this goal. Finally, I attended an event put on by the Decatur Township Education Foundation in honor of the school system naming the site of the Blue and Gold Academy after Lugar.

He spoke off the top of his head about his diplomatic work. He talked about helping to secure loose nukes in the former Soviet states in Europe and Asia. He also even talked about the trip with then-Senator Barack Obama where they were briefly detained in Russia on a diplomatic trip. After the speech, Senator Lugar greeted everyone who waited for him. He took every picture and signed every autograph. I shook his hand and told him how much I admired him even though I was on the opposite side of the aisle. He smiled and thanked me. I then watched as his staffers tried to pull him away from the others, but he ended up being nearly the last person in the room. He only left when no one else wanted to meet him. That's an enduring image I'll have of the Senator.

In retrospect, it might have been that statesmanship that cost him his seat in the Senate. Richard Mourdock used that diplomatic fact-finding trip Senator Lugar took with then Senator Barack Obama that I referenced earlier as a rallying cry to knock off Lugar. He mocked him as "Obama's favorite Senator" and decried bipartisanship. When Senator Lugar had to say goodbye to the Senate, his farewell speech was memorable.

Lugar's Farewell Speech

So, as we again mourn the death of one of the greatest Indiana politicians, we must also mourn the death of one of the greatest Hoosiers. Like Birch Bayh who passed just weeks ago, individuals like Richard Lugar come along very rarely, and we were all better for having lived in his time. He enriched our world and our society.