Two Weeks To Go: Election Hodge Podge

Lots of different things to talk about, so I decided to just post this hodge podge look at everything I'm thinking about. 

• Let's begin with the 5th District race between Victoria Spartz and Christina Hale. The campaign has taken a particularly negative turn. The PACs and the Spartz campaign have been the main culprits launching pretty much spaghetti against the wall attacks at Hale hoping something sticks. As Mary Beth Schneider reported on Twitter a few days ago, any negative policies the GOP says Hale voted for that became law had to also have been supported by a ton of Republicans too in the General Assembly. Indiana has had a GOP supermajority in both houses now for several sessions. Hale's ads continue to hammer home the health care debate over preexisting conditions. To my count, her campaign has explicitly only lobbed two negative ads at Spartz. One that was on health care where the State Senator is on tape saying health care is "not federal issue" and another with a couple giving a testimonial on how the Affordable Care Act helped their child. The PACs and the DCCC have hammered Spartz hard with some cringeworthy but probably effective ads. I would love to see some recent polling on this one. Given the amount of money coming in, I'd say it's probably close still. Hale and Spartz each released ads in the past showing each with a lead. Independent polls have slightly favored Hale.
• The 5th District race has kind of taken the air out of the other Congressional races in Indiana, but Jeannine Lee Lake's race in the 6th against Mike Pence's brother, Greg, has gotten attention for the wrong reasons. Lake has told WTHR that she has been receiving threats and that her campaign RV was vandalized. Lake also went on Facebook Live following an incident where someone allegedly fired a weapon in her vicinity. It's sad where politics have led us in 2020. My best to Lake as she continues her courageous attempt to unseat Greg Pence. Let's hope that law enforcement helps keep the candidate safe as she continues campaigning.
• The race for Governor should be ramping up, but, as Adam Wren reported in Politico, the campaign has become a referendum on Eric Holcomb's mask mandate. Libertarian Donald Rainwater has found broad support and has more cash on hand than Democrat Woody Myers by his staunch opposition to Holcomb's pandemic response. Myers is trying to open up the conversation on doing more in Indiana to control the surging COVID-19 case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths. It's really a shame Myers has not been able to break through. In the Politico piece by Wren, former Indiana House Speaker and 2012 and 2016 Democratic nominee for Governor, John Gregg goes off calling Myers the "most disappointing candidate the Democrats have put forward" for Governor in his lifetime. I like John, but I don't think he needs to be criticizing too heavily on that regard. Yes, Myers has struggled to raise money and campaign in what should be a downwind season for Dems, but Gregg didn't run a perfect campaign in either of his runs, either. Holcomb remains the heavy favorite. Will he get 50 percent, though? I think you'll see him around 55 percent on Election Night. Then, without the need for reelection as Indiana Governors are term limited maybe he'll return to the pre-election season Holcomb who might move Indiana back on the "Back on Track" plan out of Stage 5. Since moving to Stage 5, Indiana has seen cases of coronavirus explode.
• Which leads me to the next point: The Indiana Democratic Party. Boy, have we reached the same crossroads again here. The Indiana Dems have proven that they cannot run a multiple fronts campaign again forcing all their resources in one or two directions. This time, the Dems seem to be placing their advocacy behind a few state races, Hale's race (though much more federal and PAC dollars seem at play here) and the race for Indiana Attorney General between Jonathan Weinzapfel and Todd Rokita. All the while, John Zody continues to hold on to his Chairmanship. It's understandable that Dems would have an uphill battle in Indiana, but it shouldn't be, in my estimation, nearly as bad as it is right now. 
• The fact that Republicans are running ads in the Indianapolis market for several General Assembly races really underscores how concerned that they are about them. While they are in no danger of losing their majority, Dems could pick up enough seats to end the supermajority in the House at least. There are also some great opportunities in the Senate where progressive voices could gobble up Republican seats. It bears watching.

That's it for now. As I write this, I'm watching Colts football. Back to the game.

Braun Tells Schools "Take a Little Risk" in Reopening

Mike Braun
Official Senate Photo

Mike Braun wants teachers, students, parents and school leaders to, "Take a little risk," and reopen schools for full in-person instruction. 

Anything less, Braun apparently thinks, is a "head in the sand" approach.

Citing Notre Dame and Purdue University as examples, Braun criticized Arizona education leaders casting doubt on the August 17 mandated start. Ironically, he also encouraged schools to mitigate risks and, "Be safe." Braun made his comments on Stuart Varney's program on Fox Business.

That's your Senator, Indiana. 

Braun, of course, loves nothing more than attempting to please Donald Trump at all times. He showed a little independence earlier this year in pushing qualified immunity reform, but he snapped back into line when he received a little pushback. 

This seat is the same seat once occupied by Richard Lugar and Joe Donnelly. Can you imagine either of them telling parents to risk the lives of their students? Can you imagine them asking teachers to risk their lives so brazenly?

All of these comments come as the CDC and the United States Government have provided confusing and constantly changing guidance for schools on how to open safely. At first, the CDC provided clear guidelines, but Vice President Mike Pence and President Trump pushed back and undermined the agency who revised the plan making the guidance less strict.

I guess the question for Senator Braun is to define what a "little risk" is. After he defines it, he needs to tell us if he's prepared for the possibility that opening schools for in-person full instruction could add to the nearly 3,000 Hoosiers who have already died and all the horrible scenarios that come with that.

Indiana schools lack any guidance from Governor Holcomb on what to do right now in day-to-day operation. He's pushed that off on local communities. On the surface, that makes a lot of sense. What's appropriate in Benton County may not be the same as what's appropriate in Marion County. In practice, it's created a lot of confusion among administrators and school boards about whether to open fully in person, use some hybrid of in person and online learning or moving totally online. 

In the absence of any guidance from the state, Marion County created an easy-to-follow protocol and communicated it last week. It remains to be seen as to why the state can't copy Virginia Caine's homework on this. I predict that eventually, Governor Holcomb and the Indiana State Department of Health will follow Marion County's lead because that is essentially what has happened often since March.

But, back to Mike Braun. Using a higher education model to somehow shame local school boards is ridiculous. Purdue, Notre Dame and Indiana are all requiring COVID-19 tests for students returning to campus in some form. There is no such requirement or funding for K-12 students and staff as schools reopen. I'd argue that with a rising statewide positivity rate in testing that it's impossible to know what exactly we're risking.

Arizona's Hayden-Winkleman Unified District Superintendent Jeff Gregorich was more blunt about what's at risk in talking about his rural Arizona district. He told the Washington Post that he's been working hard to open, but he sees no way that his district can safely provide in-person instruction. Gregorich wrote, "Kids will get sick, or worse. Family members will die. Teachers will die."

Hopefully Hoosier voters will remember Braun's callous position on this when he stands for reelection. For a former member of a school board, Braun seems ready to put Hoosier students, teachers, administrators and school staff in danger so he can look good in President Trump's eyes.

In the leadership vacuum that exists in Indiana, Braun should be empowering each local school board to make the best decision for their local district based on the guidance and information they are receiving from local health officials. He shouldn't be telling them to essentially head to the COVID-19 Casino and keep the rabbit's foot nearby for luck.

Spartz Caught in Lie While Pulling Age-Old Tactic of Failing Campaign

Victoria Spartz
Official Indiana Senate Photo

In politics, it's usually conventional wisdom that the candidate who is behind challenges the incumbent/leading candidate to a debate. If you're the incumbent or the candidate in front, a debate, conventional wisdom says, only gives the challenger a venue to hack into your lead and record.

That's where we are in the 5th District Congressional race today as Indiana state Senator Victoria Spartz challenged former Indiana state Rep. Christina Hale to three debates in a tweet.

The action took many by surprise, including me. The 5th District is an open seat in November because Susan Brooks is retiring from Congress. The Republican legislator was first elected to the seat in 2012. Her decision to not pursue election was a bit of a surprise. The district rates a +9 Republican district according to Cook Partisan Voting Index.

Makes you wonder if Spartz has some sort of damaging internal polling in her hands showing her behind Hale. While Indiana's 5th District Congressional race has recently been rated as a toss-up by many of the prognosticators who look at polling data, it's clear Spartz, the Republican nominee, believes she's behind Hale, the
Democratic nominee.

Christina Hale
Campaign Photo

That's not all. Spartz flat out lied about Hale's record while laying down the challenge. In her tweet thread, she accused Hale of being a liberal and accused her of opposing the reforms of Governors Daniels, Pence and Holcomb, but Spartz's timeline doesn't match up. Hale didn't serve with anyone other than Pence.

Hale defeated a five-term Republican incumbent named Cindy Noe by 51 votes in a then-Republican 87th District to become a member of the Indiana General Assembly. She was sworn in in January of 2013. She then was reelected to the seat in 2014 with another narrow victory over a well-funded GOP opponent. She was on her way to a third reelection in 2016 when she was asked to join John Gregg as his Lieutenant Governor candidate. She left the legislature to pursue that office.

Given the razor-thin margin of the 87th District when Hale represented it, it's laughable that Spartz, who in May just ran her first real race versus voters for elected office, would say today on Twitter that Hale has "reliably liberal" policies.

So, to review, Spartz, who was spotted just a few days ago campaigning without wearing a facemask, lied about Hale's record in the process of pulling a classic move of a failing campaign in challenging an opponent to a debate.

It's not been a good couple of weeks for Senator Spartz.

Lucas' Controversial Post on Social Media Draws Scrutiny

Stop me if you've heard this one before...

Barely two months after he was demoted from leadership posts by the Republican House caucus for what many considered to be a racially-charged Facebook post, Jim Lucas, the District 69 State Representative, has again posted something controversial.

Lucas, who has been a frequent critic of the state's pandemic response, took to Facebook to express his outrage over the mandate asking Hoosiers to wear a mask. This picture of the post is circulating on social media. 

Lucas met with almost immediate backlash and even some praise on the post. After the outrage began to outweigh the praise with many people seeing the post as a potential threat against Governor Eric Holcomb, Lucas added an addendum to the post:

For those that are blowing this out of proportion (again), this picture IS NOT a threat against anyone! 

It is a picture that I have used countless times for years that best exhibits our FREEDOM and Constitutional rights and IS NOT A THREAT!

History shows that the posts from yesterday were right in character for Lucas.

Lucas once posted a letter he wrote to an Indy Star reporter who had written a story about rape suggesting a follow-up story about women "learning how not to be a victim." Lucas apologized.

Another time, he also shared a meme with a picture of a woman in the trunk of a car with the caption, "Wanna know who loves you more: your wife or your dog? Lock them both in your trunk and see who's happy to see you when you let them out."

On WISH-TV's Facebook page, Lucas once shared a photo of two nooses under a story where a black man had confessed to raping three women in Indiana. Lucas claimed the photo posting had nothing to do with the race of the man who admitted to the rapes.

Then, that post I mentioned earlier in this post from last May that caused him to write this (ahem) apology

In almost every case, Lucas accuses those who take umbrage with his posts as making a mountain out of a molehill. He also has claimed multiple times that the pictures or memes he posts have been used by him in other ways before in trying to excuse the use. You can almost set your watch by it.

One has to truly wonder what Lucas' intentions were in this case. Does he think he can intimidate Governor Holcomb? Holcomb, who has polled strongly since taking office, is a longtime GOP insider and former Indiana Republican Party Chair with inside ties to Dan Coats, Mitch Daniels and Mike Pence. He's Donald Trump's honorary campaign chair in Indiana.

Lucas is a State Representative who has managed to get catty-wompus with his own party.

Holcomb's not intimidated. He's right on masks. He may have taken a little time to get there, but action had to be taken to help slow the spread. Masks don't violate anyone's rights. They protect your health.

One thing's for darn sure, Lucas' history shows that he's clearly not changing the way he goes about his social media activities. Some would say that it's been the minimal consequences that he's faced that emboldens him. He seems to believe he's untouchable politically. Perhaps he's too comfortable in his seat, but it's his seat until someone defeats him at the ballot box.

Just so you know, voters of District 69, Jeffery Prewitt is running against Lucas, and there's also an independent on the ballot named Katrina Hardwick. You have a choice.

For now, I'll mark the tape because I am quite sure there will be a new, controversial Lucas post sometime soon. When it happens, I'll even use the same headline.

Education On Ballot in 2020 Gubernatorial Race

Woody Myers
Campaign Photo

I rarely post about my day job on this blog because I try to be like the old McDonalds McDLT.

For those of you who might have forgotten, that sandwich was marketed as keeping your cold ingredients on a completely opposite side as the hot burger. I try to keep politics and education apart on this blog because I am a teacher in my day job. Sometimes, though, it's unavoidable especially when the gubernatorial race is making news in our state.

On education policy, I could not disagree on policy much more than the Republicans and Governor Eric Holcomb. Indiana ranks near the bottom in spending per pupil and teacher pay, but teachers in the Hoosier State rank dead last in income growth since 2002. Indiana also has one of the most robust voucher systems in the United States taking money out of the public schools and putting it in the hands of private schools. Indiana is one of the top states for charter school laws as well.

Traditional public schools, especially in Indiana's most populated areas, typically have found themselves struggling. Indiana's major cities have been shuttering traditional public schools and have been trying to make ends meet financially as the money has been squeezed away from them.

Through all this, Indiana remains in the top half in outcomes and school rankings. USA Today placed Indiana schools 18th. US News and World Report ranked Indiana schools 24th. So, despite all the struggles, teachers are doing their jobs.

That's why it was disappointing this morning to wake up and hear Woody Myers, the Democratic nominee for Governor describe Indiana education as "poor" and grading it as a "D+". He made these comments in an Instagram video on his Educators for Woody Myers Instagram page.

Eric Holcomb
Official Indiana Photo

Myers goes on to talk about many of the challenges that I've detailed here in this post, but I find it hard to get past that first statement in his video where he talks about the quality of education in Indiana as poor.

Maybe it's just me being too invested, but I think Indiana teachers deserve better than a D+. There's no question Indiana schools need to do better especially for our most vulnerable students. We do have many challenges, but, in my biased opinion, I believe teachers do what they can in traditional public schools despite the hand their districts are dealt by the Republican-led state government.

Listen, I'm voting for Woody Myers. Eric Holcomb is just wrong on education policy altogether. He and the Republicans that control education policy value State Fairgrounds Swine Barn renovations over teacher pay. Holcomb and his friends put in ridiculous 15-hour externships in as part of professional development and license renewal. Yeah, he isn't right on any of that.

The next Governor will also appoint the next Superintendent of Public Instruction and eight of the 10 members of the State Board of Education. With the Superintendent, that's NINE of the eleven seats. This is critical to understand. The voters, thanks to Republicans, have lost any voice on that board except through the Governor they elect. I know that a Governor Myers Administration wouldn't believe Indiana teachers are bad, but we need to hear more uplifting messages on how are schools and our teaches are succeeding and a clear message placing the blame for where we are right now with funding, teacher pay, and other issues right where it belongs. Imagine how much better we could be doing with a Governor who valued teachers and traditional public schools.

That's on the desk of Governor Holcomb, his predecessors Mitch Daniels and Mike Pence and the Republican supermajority.

Rokita Squeaks Past Hill, Will Face Weinzapfel

Tad Rakouta
U.S. Congress Photo

Indiana Republicans have spoken. Curtis Hill's political career is over, at least for now, and Todd Rokita is back off the dust heap.

Rokita, former Indiana Secretary of State and U.S. Representative, had not had much luck with Republican voters lately. He took a risk and left a safe seat in the 4th Congressional District to run for U.S. Senate against fellow Rep. Luke Messer and State Rep. Mike Braun. He finished a distant second. Rokita also tried to become the Republican's nominee for Governor after Mike Pence left the ticket in 2016. Eric Holcomb obviously won that battle.

Despite all the negative and really creepy things Hill has done in his time as AG, Rokita could only muster 53 percent of the Republican delegate vote in the final round vs. Hill. John Westercamp and Nate Harter also ran for the nomination. The GOP used ranked choice voting in the race which was conducted by mail.

Jonathan Weinzapfel
Campaign Photo

For Hill, it probably could be argued that despite the tacit support of President Donald Trump that the investigation over groping allegations and the resulting loss of his law license for 30 days took him down. Hill's political crash and burn marks a new beginning for Rokita, a man as known for his many wacky statements and disgusting political positions as his ambition. Still, it's a stunning ending to this chapter for Hill. While political comebacks are always a possibility, this seems like a pretty big and certainly final thud for Hill, once the top votegetter of any state officeholder in Indiana history.

Curtis Hill
Official Photo

Hill's loss changes the trajectory of the November race as Democrat Jonathan Weinzapfel, the former Mayor of Evansville, will now face Rokita. On the face of it, it's an easy pivot for the Dems and Weinzapfel. We've already seen sophomoric tactics out of Rokita whose campaign misspelled Weinzapfel's name multiple times in a news release after the former Mayor won the Democratic nod last month over state Senator Karen Tallian. Expect Dems to hit Rokita hard on some of his worst public statements, his ambition and his alleged mistreatment of his congressional staff. It will be an uphill battle for Weinzapfel. A good showing by Joe Biden in Indiana could help Weinzapfel.

What's next for Curtis Hill is anyone's guess. In his spare time, he's an Elvis impersonator. Maybe he can do that. What is clear is that boorish and inappropriate behavior was just not what the GOP wanted this year in their Attorney General nominee.

They didn't want it so much that they chose Todd Rokita.

Is Mike Pence Stealing Eric Holcomb's Hot Pockets?

Vice President Mike Pence
Photo: The White House

A few days ago, it came to light that former Indiana Governor Mike Pence has not bothered to update his voter registration.

He's still registered to vote at 4750 N. Meridian, better known as the Indiana Governor's Mansion. While the national news just picked up on this story, local news station WRTV reported on this back in May 2018.

Hoosiers will note that the Vice President moved out of that location and into his new government digs in Washington in January of 2017. That means that the United States' highest-ranking head nodder has voted in the 2018 primary and general elections, the 2019 primary and general elections and the 2020 primary election using that registration.

Pence's refusal to change his registration to One Observatory Circle, Washington DC brings to mind a scandal that almost cost an Indiana legend a chance to vote for himself. in 2012.

Astute political observers will note that the late former Senator Richard Lugar utilized a voting address of an Indy house he had not lived in for decades for many years despite living in Virginia full time. The Senator would hang his hat at the Howard Johnson's (or whatever hotel he booked...it didn't have to be a Ho Jo) when he would come to the state and visit. 

Lugar ended up getting called on the carpet and registered at his Decatur Township tree farm for voting purposes. That meant that he was essentially my neighbor though he never invited me over for tea.

Democrats do it too. Evan Bayh got caught during the campaign for Senate in 2016 using an empty condo he at least owned in Washington Township as his local address for voting purposes. Bayh, like Lugar, lived in Virginia. Of course, he wasn't a sitting Senator at that point. He'd somehow make due staying in hotels when he visited Indy. At least he made the effort, am I right?

Of course, in 2020, Pence and his boss want to rail against mail-in ballots as having the potential of voter fraud, but they both voted by mail in the primary election this year with Pence doing it from his old residence in Indiana. They aren't the only ones, either in the Trump Administration who utilized voted by mailing it in. Yet, to hear Trump tell it, mail-in voting is a sure-fire way for an election to be rigged. 

I do have a suggestion, though. If Indiana election officials ever force Pence to live in Governor Holcomb's basement, that would be a sure fire riot of an SNL skit. Holcomb and Pence bickering over who ate the last Hot Pocket.

If push came to shove, though, maybe Pence could call up Evan and see if he still has that condo.

Forget Impeachment Democrats

Sit down please. Let's have some real talk, fellow Democrats.

Let's chat about impeachment. I'm going to tell how this plays out if you turn down Impeachment Avenue.

The process in the House will take time. Hearings, drawing up the Articles of Impeachment, etc. I'm sure this process will take us into early 2020. Let's say the House votes along party lines and Donald Trump is impeached. He leaves office and Mike Pence takes over, right?

WRONG.

Even if Donald Trump is impeached by a wide majority in the House, the proceedings move to the Senate. There, the circus continues. After let's say a month of trial, debate, histrionics and other fun presided over by Chief Justice John Roberts, the Senate votes.

Let's say the trial compels two of 53 Republicans to join the Democrats in voting for conviction and removal from office. That's still only 49 votes. It's not even a majority. You need 67 votes, and Donald Trump could pick up Jared Kushner and smack Chief Justice Roberts in the face with him during the proceedings and still the necessary 14 Republicans won't vote him out of office.

So, you have, for the third time in history, a President of the United States who is impeached by the House and acquitted by the Senate.

But, Donald Trump is no ordinary President. He thrives on this crap. This time, there will be no apology in the Rose Garden or a promise to do better. This President will go on a "whistle stop" golfing tour holding rallies in Trump Country drawing out every supporter he can find who will be stronger than ever behind their man. 

Every day, Trump and his loyalists will tweet out "FULL EXONERATION! FULL ACQUITTAL!" in caps on Twitter. He'll blather on about how the Democrats are simply haters and harrassers. His base hardens.

Meanwhile, the Democrats still can't pick a strategy or a candidate. I fear that my party will continue to fumble, stumble, and tumble and rather than come up with a message and an inspiring candidate that can defeat Donald Trump, they'll have their shoestrings tied together and be given a metaphorical wedgie by a man who knows how to do it.

You don't play this game with the master showman. Donald Trump knows how to play something for a spectacle. An impeachment aquittal will give him everything he needs.

And you know who knows all this? The vote counter herself, Nancy Pelosi. You can say what you want about Speaker Pelosi, but the minute she decides to proceed with impeachment is the moment that she knows there are 67 votes in the Senate. Until then, it ain't happenin'. Follow Speaker Pelosi's lead. She knows what she's doing.

The best course of action is to move on. That's right. I said it, Democrats. Move on. 

Donald Trump absolutely deserves to be impeached, but it's not politically possible because the Senate is broken. Our only recourse is to redouble efforts and make sure that we nominate the right Democrat for President.

So, what about the Rule of Law? Well, that's difficult. Trump's a problem for sure, but I swear this is not how he's going to be ousted from office. It's only going to be repudiation at the ballot box that he's out of office, in my opinion anyway. The way to end the Trump Administration is to beat him. There will be time to hold him accountable, but that's when he is out of office in January 2021. I think there's a road map in the Mueller Report for that.

When it comes to President Trump, forget impeachment and focus on November 3, 2020...or, if you like spectacles with no possibility of anything coming out in your favor...by all means, impeach away.