Sit down please. Let's have some real talk, fellow Democrats.
Let's chat about impeachment. I'm going to tell how this plays out if you turn down Impeachment Avenue.
The process in the House will take time. Hearings, drawing up the Articles of Impeachment, etc. I'm sure this process will take us into early 2020. Let's say the House votes along party lines and Donald Trump is impeached. He leaves office and Mike Pence takes over, right?
WRONG.
Even if Donald Trump is impeached by a wide majority in the House, the proceedings move to the Senate. There, the circus continues. After let's say a month of trial, debate, histrionics and other fun presided over by Chief Justice John Roberts, the Senate votes.
Let's say the trial compels two of 53 Republicans to join the Democrats in voting for conviction and removal from office. That's still only 49 votes. It's not even a majority. You need 67 votes, and Donald Trump could pick up Jared Kushner and smack Chief Justice Roberts in the face with him during the proceedings and still the necessary 14 Republicans won't vote him out of office.
So, you have, for the third time in history, a President of the United States who is impeached by the House and acquitted by the Senate.
But, Donald Trump is no ordinary President. He thrives on this crap. This time, there will be no apology in the Rose Garden or a promise to do better. This President will go on a "whistle stop" golfing tour holding rallies in Trump Country drawing out every supporter he can find who will be stronger than ever behind their man.
Every day, Trump and his loyalists will tweet out "FULL EXONERATION! FULL ACQUITTAL!" in caps on Twitter. He'll blather on about how the Democrats are simply haters and harrassers. His base hardens.
Meanwhile, the Democrats still can't pick a strategy or a candidate. I fear that my party will continue to fumble, stumble, and tumble and rather than come up with a message and an inspiring candidate that can defeat Donald Trump, they'll have their shoestrings tied together and be given a metaphorical wedgie by a man who knows how to do it.
You don't play this game with the master showman. Donald Trump knows how to play something for a spectacle. An impeachment aquittal will give him everything he needs.
And you know who knows all this? The vote counter herself, Nancy Pelosi. You can say what you want about Speaker Pelosi, but the minute she decides to proceed with impeachment is the moment that she knows there are 67 votes in the Senate. Until then, it ain't happenin'. Follow Speaker Pelosi's lead. She knows what she's doing.
The best course of action is to move on. That's right. I said it, Democrats. Move on.
Donald Trump absolutely deserves to be impeached, but it's not politically possible because the Senate is broken. Our only recourse is to redouble efforts and make sure that we nominate the right Democrat for President.
So, what about the Rule of Law? Well, that's difficult. Trump's a problem for sure, but I swear this is not how he's going to be ousted from office. It's only going to be repudiation at the ballot box that he's out of office, in my opinion anyway. The way to end the Trump Administration is to beat him. There will be time to hold him accountable, but that's when he is out of office in January 2021. I think there's a road map in the Mueller Report for that.
When it comes to President Trump, forget impeachment and focus on November 3, 2020...or, if you like spectacles with no possibility of anything coming out in your favor...by all means, impeach away.
